The New Patriotic Party is scheduled to hold its Annual Regional Delegates Conference on Sunday 22nd April, 2018 at the Pastoral Centre, Sunyani in the Brong Ahafo region.
The conference among other things will elect 10 Regional Executives from among the 31 candidates aspiring to lead the party in the region for the next four years.
Although few skirmishes were recorded during the campaigns, there was some level of maturity in handling such matters which were deemed internal matters and should not be blown out of proportion.
With the Brong Ahafo Regional Minister, Kwaku Asomah-Cheremeh, a very influential personality in the party in the region wielding about 19% loyalty level among delegates openly backing some candidates, the contest in Sunyani on Sunday will surely be a contest to watch.
Per our preliminary checks, the number of delegates expected to vote in the conference is 575. These are 17 executives from the 29 constituencies, 20 Members of Parliament, 17 TESCON members, 15 incumbent regional executives, 10 patrons, 10 council of elders, 5 NEC members, and 5 founding members.
But according to the Regional Elections Committee, the body in charge of Sunday polls, they are expecting a round figure of 600 delegates.
Whosoever is elected will overtly or covertly, have some substantial influence in the party’s fortunes in the 2020 elections considering the fact that the region is tagged as one of the swing regions in the country.
The research was conducted to find out the key indexes that affect delegates in their choice of candidates during intra-party contest.
According to the outfit, the research will inform aspirants and future aspirants on the factors and issues mostly considered during such contests.
In order to get accurate figures, the research was conducted in all the 29 constituencies in the region. Phones calls were placed to an average of 5 delegates randomly selected from the 29 constituencies.
Out of the target of 145 delegates, 109 granted readily provided information and responded to questions, 22 of the delegates refused to respond to questions on the grounds that they did not know Integrity Network & Upgrade Support Services and would want to keep their decisions secret and the remaining 14 did not pick calls place to them.
Another group of researchers also directly and personally interviewed 25 elders of the party some of whose name on the list of council of elders were not in doubt, 5 media personnel in Sunyani and some 17 known party faithfuls who are not delegates.
Taking into consideration the fact that some extraneous factors like show of financial strength, connection with the corridors of power, candidates’ composure on the grounds and in speech delivery, good interpersonal relationship and other factors indirectly or directly influence the voting trends, critical analysis of the data gathered showed that the following dynamics or variables will play a pivotal role in the success or otherwise of various candidates:
- Message of individual candidates:- 20%
- Sympathy votes for regional executives without government appointment:- 13%
- Popularity of individual candidates:- 15%
- The Regional Minister’s factor:- 19%
- Incumbency advantage:- 15%
- Undecided:- 18%.
PREDICTIONS FOR THE MAIN CANDIDATES
With a confidence level of 90% and a marginal error of ± 5, this part of the research conclusively make the following predictions for the main candidates whose capabilities and chances were discussed in the first part of the report we published last week:
Despite the fact that Mr. Francis Opoku Sarfo is very popular among the delegates with his adopted Wontumi antics and has the advantage of being the favourite of the Regional Minister, Mr. Thomas Adu Appiah is more favoured to win because aside being the incumbent, delegates attest to the fact that he has the best message among the aspirants and will attract some sympathy votes as he has no government appointment.
|1||THOMAS ADU APPIAH||56.70|
|2||FRANCIS OPOKU SARFO||31.05|
1ST VICE CHAIRMAN
Beaming with a youthful exuberance, Kwame Baffoe has risen to fame as the voice of the voiceless, anti-corruption campaigner and the lead speaker for Brong Ahafo in national discourse.
Though Kwame Baffoe has a strained relationship with the Regional Minister, his level of popularity even in areas considered to be aligned to the Regional Minister makes him the favourite.
He is expected to win hands down as he is popular, enjoys incumbency advantage and has a strong message rooted around grass-root mobilization.
His closest contender is Dr. Emmanuel Opoku Marfo who comes into the race with no strong holdings apart from his academic credentials. He runs on the wings of the Regional Minister.
Mr. Patrick Peprah Appiagyei is ranked the highest in terms of quality of message and high level of nobility but those factors are extremely insignificant as far as the delegates are concerned.
|2||DR. EMMANUEL OPOKU SARFO||14.91|
2ND VICE CHAIRMAN
There seem to be no serious desire to compete for this portfolio. Madam Justina Owusu-Banahene is likely to snatch the seat but not a silver platter.
She comes into the contest with the support of the Regional Minister and also enjoys strong popularity among the delegates compared to Mr. Joseph Mensah, the incumbent.
Mr. Joseph Mensah has a very powerful message but his inability to deal with issues at the National Health Insurance Office in the region may affect him.
There is an indication that it is still an open race for the two as it will be determined by some extraneous factors on the grounds.
With extraneous factors like commitment to work, sacrifices to the party in opposition, humility in dignity and experience on the job, Mr. Kofi Ofosu Boateng is poised to win the race for the secretary position.
With sympathy votes as a result of not having any government appointment yet, his popularity among delegates as the first Director of Communication in the region, incumbency advantage from his previous good working relations with old executives and a well tailored and powerful message, Mr. Kofi Ofosu Boateng is likely to enjoy massive endorsement from the delegates.
Mr David Boakye comes to the race as a surprise candidate with a strong message but most of the delegates feel he must join the queue and come next time. Others also think he would have been better as the Deputy Secretary.
The chances of the third candidate, John Nketiah who was initially thought to be a force to reckon has dwindled ever since allegations of financial malfeasance against him surfaced.
Surprisingly, none of the candidates have total control over the constituencies with strong loyalty to the Regional Minister.
|1||KOFI OFOSU BOATENG||64.92|
|2||DAVID BOAKYE/ JOHN BUGRI||21.53|
The dynamics in this category is very strange and make the contest a bit dicey to predict but it is likely that it will be determined by the individual candidate’s ability to rise to the occasion.
Enjoying the support of the incumbent Regional Organizer, Mr. Ebenezer Asare Baffour leads the race but he will have to demonstrate enough capacity on his own to get the majority of the delegates to be on his side.
Though Mr. Clement Bonsu started the race as the most advantageous candidate considering his long standing and dedicated service to the party as a communicator, he seems to lack the enthusiasm to rally the needed support to his advantage.
Mr. Mohammed Baba Gausu is tipped to cause an upset on the day. He contested for the position of Youth Organizer in the last elections against Kwame Baffoe but lost.
If Mr. Clement Bonsu is unable to win the sympathy of the delegates, we are likely going to see Mr. Mohammed Baba Gausu taking advantage considering the fact that he just lost his job as a banker with the National Investment Bank for his active involvement in party politics.
There is a possibility that extraneous factors may play to the advantage of any of the candidates.
|1||EBENEZER ASARE BAFFOUR||31.32|
|2||MOHAMMED BABA GAUSU||24.71|
If message and agenda alone win votes then the most relevant and competent person for this position in the Brong Ahafo Region, should be Madam Doris Asomah.
However, the indexes from the data show otherwise. Mrs. Dorothy Ama Amponsah, the incumbent is highly favoured to win as she enjoys sympathy and is very popular. Most delegates are convinced that she solely finances their feeding any time the party holds a programme.
Madam Patience Tettey runs strongly in the areas where loyalty lays with the Regional Minister.
Like Doris Asomah, she has a very calm personality and seems to enjoy support from most of the women organisers who are unable to declare their support overtly for fear of victimisation.
The sheer numbers contesting in this portfolio makes it very difficult for determining the main dynamics at play here.
Per analysis of the various variables from the data from the field, Micheal Osei Boateng, a stalwart is the lead candidate as he enjoys incumbency advantage and the delegates also feel he has developed enough capacity to rally the youth for 2020.
But that seems to be dipped by his management of some issues after his appointment as the regional boss of the YEA and his inability to disperse perceptions that he has been sorted out by the party.
He may be affected by some extraneous factors as well, but some indexes place him ahead of the other five competitors.
Abdul Razak is still the biggest challenger and the most formidable force against Micheal Osei Boateng’s second bid to become the substantive Youth Organizer for the party in the region.
He has the support of the Muslim groups in the region and has strong affiliation to Ali Mega, the Dormaa West MP.
He also enjoys some level of popularity among delegates and some major stakeholders in the youth front who fell off with Micheal Osei Boateng after his appointment, however, most of them are not delegates.
Abdul Razak highest chance to victory lay with his connections with some power brokers in the party at the regional and national levels.
Despite the fact that Eugene Kusi Boakye has the strongest message, Isaac Kwame Benkae’s having massive grass-root presence and the last minute antics by Richard Kwadwo Adu, the indicators do not favour any of them.
|1||MICHEAL OSEI BOATENG||49.75|
The delegates are convinced that you do not need a doctorate degree to work as a treasurer for a political party. Most of them believe if a person was able to do the work in opposition why can’t he do same in government.
By this analogy, Alhaji Issaka Issa is set to receive a massive endorsement by the delegates from almost all the constituencies.
His chances are boosted as he enjoys sympathy, incumbency advantage, popularity and has a well crafted message spiced with sentimentalism.
Mr. Justice Appiah Antwi is not perturbed and is highly optimistic of his competencies, attributes many delegates allude to. He is likely to win some votes from the areas loyal to the Regional Minister, however, Alhaji Issaka Issa seems to neutralize that with a very strong religious advantage.
|1ST||ALHAJI ISSAKA ISSAH||76.85|
|2ND||JUSTICE APPIAH ANTWI||14.60|
The dynamics here are simple. Any of the candidate that has the majority of the support from the Nasara Coordinators from the constituencies wins. The research reveals that an analysis of the data coupled with the sudden support of some Nasara Coordinators make Amadu Bermah Sulemana the favourite.
However, a sizeable number believe that Alhaji Adamu Mohammed is more of a grass-root person.
|1||AMADU BERMAH SULEMANA||40.16|
|2||ALHAJI ADAMU MOHAMMED||36.31|
Credit: Integrity Network & Upgrade Support Services
Executive Secretary, Integrity Network